UBS Group has raised its mid-2026 gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce, up from its earlier target of $4,200, as the bank anticipates continued momentum in a rally that has already pushed the metal 56% higher this year. In a note released Thursday, UBS analysts said that the macroeconomic drivers behind gold’s surge—ranging from US Federal Reserve rate cuts to geopolitical tensions and shifting US policy—are expected to keep demand strong into next year.
The analysts highlighted that a deteriorating US fiscal outlook is likely to further support gold buying by central banks and investors seeking an asset with no counterparty risk. UBS also expects exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows to remain solid through 2026. In its upside scenario, the bank now sees gold climbing to as high as $4,900 an ounce, $200 above its previous projection and roughly 20% above current prices. Its downside case remains unchanged at $3,700 an ounce.
While maintaining a bullish stance, UBS also acknowledged risks that could limit gold’s ascent, including the potential for renewed Federal Reserve hawkishness and the possibility of central banks selling gold. The bank’s revised outlook comes even as gold enters a consolidation phase after reaching a record high of nearly $4,381 an ounce a month ago. Since then, the metal has mostly traded between $4,000 and $4,100, with only a brief mid-November spike toward $4,200.
Looking ahead, UBS expects a similar period of consolidation around $4,300 per ounce in late 2026, following the conclusion of the US midterm elections.
