The question of what makes a mineral “critical” differs by country, but one fact is clear: prices for many of these vital metals remain weak, even though they are central to the global energy transition.
At last week’s International Critical Minerals and Metals Summit in Bali, delegates noted the mismatch between current soft pricing for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper, and the widespread forecasts that demand will soar over the next decade.
Demand vs. Market Reality
Fastmarkets analyst Olivier Masson told the summit that demand for battery metals—lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese, and cobalt—could rise from about 3 million metric tons in 2025 to 12 million by 2035. Copper, equally critical to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar, will need nearly 909,000 tons of extra supply by 2035.
Yet the near-term market picture is less encouraging. Fastmarkets projects a global copper surplus this year, another surplus in 2026, and only marginal deficits from 2027. Significant shortfalls are not expected until the early 2030s.
The U.S. and Supply Chain Security
This supply-demand mismatch is shaping U.S. and Western policy. Washington has declared critical minerals a strategic priority, aiming to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates refining of cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. Through partnerships in Africa and Latin America, the U.S. is investing in alternative supply chains for cobalt from the DRC, copper from Zambia, and lithium from Chile and Argentina.
However, these initiatives risk adding more supply to already fragile markets, potentially putting further pressure on prices—even as producers face rising costs and policy uncertainty.
Africa’s Role in the Transition
African nations hold some of the world’s largest reserves of cobalt, copper, and manganese, all essential to battery and renewable technologies. Yet weak market prices make it harder for producers to justify major new investments. Policymakers are also increasingly asserting resource nationalism, requiring in-country beneficiation or joint ventures—moves that could reshape the supply landscape.
Lessons from Iron Ore—and Today’s Complications
This cycle is familiar. In the 2010s, iron ore producers in Australia and Brazil expanded ahead of Chinese demand, leading to a price crash before a sharp recovery as China’s steel production surpassed one billion tons annually.
Energy transition metals could follow a similar path. But today’s context is more complex: Western nations are attempting to “de-risk” from China, while China continues to expand processing capacity. These competing strategies may create both oversupply and fragmented markets.
The Bottom Line
Critical minerals are stuck in limbo. Prices remain weak due to oversupply, but long-term forecasts point to surging demand. For now, producers in Africa, the Americas, and beyond must contain costs, navigate geopolitical pressures, and wait for the energy transition to fully ignite.
