Chile’s state-owned copper giant Codelco has cautioned that the country’s copper production could plateau at around 5.5 million tonnes per year, raising fresh concerns for global supply at a time when demand for the energy transition is surging.
Speaking at the Ecos de la Minería summit in Santiago, Codelco chairman Máximo Pacheco highlighted “enormous difficulties” facing the sector, including deeper and more complex mining operations, falling ore grades, and rising costs. As the world’s leading copper producer, any stagnation in Chile’s output could ripple across international markets.
Despite the headwinds, Codelco is pushing ahead with major initiatives. Pacheco confirmed the company’s commitment to a lithium partnership with SQM in the Salar de Atacama, while also announcing imminent deals with BHP on the Anillo copper project and with Anglo American on a joint mining plan.
Lithium deal at the finish line
SQM president Gina Ocqueteau told La Tercera she remains optimistic that the lithium partnership will be ratified before Chile’s next government takes office in March. She cautioned, however, that delays could defer crucial state revenues earmarked for public projects.
Two key hurdles remain:
- Completion of an indigenous consultation process led by development agency Corfo.
- Approval from China’s antitrust regulator (SAMR), where Ocqueteau noted “good news and a growing sentiment,” though concerns linger in Beijing over global lithium supply.
Energy and Mining Minister Aurora Williams said the special contract governing the deal has already passed review by both the Comptroller General and the state copper agency Cochilco. “The only thing left for us to do is sign it,” she confirmed.
The agreement would give Codelco majority control of SQM’s lithium production in northern Chile, setting environmental, operational, and financial terms for decades to come. If sealed, it would mark a landmark moment in Chile’s push to expand the state’s role in strategic minerals.
Still, political uncertainty looms. Several presidential contenders have warned they may review or even scrap the deal if it is not finalized before President Gabriel Boric leaves office — adding pressure on his administration to deliver before March.