A state-backed Chinese research group has forecast that China’s copper demand may peak around the end of this decade, signaling a potential shift away from the typically bullish expectations for copper consumption. Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. projects robust demand from China’s renewable energy sector, a key area often emphasized by copper proponents. However, a slowing Chinese economy and a growing preference for aluminum in certain applications could temper future copper demand.
According to Yang Changhua, an analyst at Antaike, China’s copper demand is expected to grow at an annual average of 1.1% from 2025 to 2030, down from a 3.9% growth rate between 2020 and 2025. Yang noted that the copper intensity within renewable energy investments is decreasing as industries explore alternatives to copper or seek ways to minimize its use.
In recent years, supply concerns and strong demand forecasts have fueled a bullish outlook for copper, pushing prices to record highs above $11,000 per ton earlier this year. However, as signs of a slowing Chinese economy and subdued global manufacturing emerge, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have recently settled closer to $9,500 per ton.
Yang also pointed out that several factors could impact the forecasted “peak by 2030” scenario, including shifts in China’s manufacturing export power or potential offshoring of production. While a global demand outlook was not provided, Yang highlighted that China’s copper demand for electric vehicles, solar, and wind energy is expected to grow significantly, reaching 3.1 million tons by 2030—equating to 26% of total demand, up from 15% in 2023.
