Gold prices may have already reached their peak of $3,500 per ounce—at least for now—according to Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America (BofA).
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Blanch said gold has become the most overcrowded trade in the market. “Everyone’s long gold,” he noted, referencing BofA’s latest global fund managers survey, which shows a record 45% of investors now view gold as overvalued, up from 34% in April.
Gold has surged over 22% in 2025, driven by strong central bank buying and inflows into gold-backed investment funds. In April, it reached a historic high of $3,500 per ounce. However, Blanch believes that sustaining those levels will require even stronger demand.
“Right now, gold demand is growing about 5% year-on-year,” he explained. “To stay above $3,500, we’d need at least 10% growth.”
He also pointed to falling jewelry demand—down 20% so far this year—and increased price volatility as signs that gold may have entered a short-term cooling phase.
What Could Push Gold Higher Again?
Blanch emphasized that while BofA still supports gold as a long-term investment, short-term gains may be limited unless new geopolitical risks emerge.
“We think the peak may be in for now. Unless there’s another major shock—whether geopolitical or economic—gold may trade lower for a while,” he said.
He cited the recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China as a reason for weaker demand in the months ahead.
Bank of America had initially forecast that gold would reach $3,500 over a two-year horizon, but that target has already been achieved. Their updated projections place gold at around $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 in 2026.
According to Blanch, any renewed surge toward $3,500 would likely require “a significant geopolitical escalation,” such as further sanctions on Russia or worsening tensions in Ukraine.
“We’re not seeing it yet, but that’s the kind of shock that could put gold back on an upward path,” he concluded.